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Nov. 9th, 2012

The Moneyball Election: Part One -- How Statistics are Important (And how they aren't)

Much has been made of 2012 as the moneyball election. It has been an election where statistics, data mining and algorithms all take on a new and increased importance—not only for "armchair political scientists" who follow Nate Silver, but also for the candidates themselves, and Obama and his team proved far better at moneyball than Romney and the GOP. Many GOP pundits were impressively, spectacularly wrong this year, as anyone who witnessed Rove's near-meltdown on Fox News can attest. Now, Karl Rove is a smart guy, and he employed some shrewd strategies back in 2004, but he didn't seem to see this one coming at all.



I told you, AFTER the broadcast...


I've been following "moneyball" and sabermetrics for the past year, not in relation to politics, but in relation to the Chicago Cubs, whose new owners fired general manager Jim Hendry after a trio of disappointing seasons in 2009-2011 (which had followed, in turn, on the heels of 2007 and 2008's back-to-back division titles). They hired a new general manager, Theo Epstein, who had applied the moneyball strategy originated in Oakland to the larger payroll of the Boston Red Sox and broke an 86-year World Series drought for that franchise.

One of the initial hallmarks of sabermetrics that is emphasized in the book and film Moneyball is the importance of getting on base. While baseball's marginally autistic fans have always loved to recount any given player's batting average, sabermetricians emphasize that a walk is as good as a hit in getting men on base. Since the ability to draw walks was undervalued by most teams, Oakland was able to get some good deals on guys who got on base more often than their batting average indicates.

Now, that's great news for the 2002 A's. But what a lot of people who watch Moneyball might not realize is that, from where we sit ten years later, everybody and their brother is looking at on-base percentage. In 2012, you can't just pick up some guys who takes walks, pat yourself on the back and say LOOK MA, I'M DOING SABERMETRICS.



There are numbers and everything!

OK. Back to Karl Rove a moment. In 2004, Karl Rove was a master of demographics. He focused on exurbs—upper-class, outer-ring suburbs like Rochester, MI or Loudoun County, VA—as the keys to constructing Bush's 2004 victory.

In 2012, Fox News Channel literally zooms in, again and again, on Loudoun County, VA as a key to that state and the nation.

LOOK MA, I'M DOING DEMOGRAPHICS.

The ideas aren't bad—they really did work, in the past. But they fail to account for current conditions.



One of these times, this door will lead into summer.

It's not that one side is using statistics and the other isn't. Sure, Peggy Noonan might not be quoting you the latest poll numbers—because she's a speechwriter. But everyone has stats guys—including the GOP.

But, look, RBI is a stat. wRAA is a stat. They both measure a player's offensive output. They're both imperfect stats. But one of them is better than the other.

In the end, though, moneyball isn't about any particular stat, or set of stats, or algorithm, or anything you can put your finger on. It's about staying three steps ahead of the competition, information-wise, and even more importantly about maintaining an organization that can turn on a dime and put that information to use.

November 2012

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